Professional Grade: Week 3 showdowns
Resist the temptation to push the panic button. We do!
Well, that's not entirely true. Soured by his quarterback's sluggish early-season performance, Scott Engel (1-1, 7th; lost to me 82-74 in Week 2) finally gave up on Philip Rivers, letting him go for surging Texans QB Matt Schaub.
Bold move, considering Engel also let Brett Favre go a week ago, only to see Favre rattle off a 21-point fantasy performance to help take down Engel's team. That would frustrate even the most experienced of fantasy owners, but not Engel. He handed Favre his walking papers despite being well aware of the fantasy-friendly matchup he passed up.
"I knew there was going to be no defense in New Jersey," Engel said of Favre's Week 2. "Just like there are no football teams in New York."
This week, he dispatched Rivers, widely considered Favre's superior in terms of fantasy talent. In doing so, though, Engel offered a little nugget to consider.
"Schaub is for real, and he faces a stern test this week against Indy without [Andre] Johnson," Engel said. "If he passes it, I'm sold."
It certainly helps that Engel's starting QB is Ben Roethlisberger, who he feels is a steadier, more reliable weekly option, not only on his squad, but on anyone's squad.
Eric Karabell (0-2, 10th; lost to Nate Ravitz 115-72 in Week 2), meanwhile, pledged more faith to his slow-starting quarterback, an understandable stance for a Drew Brees owner. Incredibly, Brees ranks 23rd among QBs in fantasy scoring through two weeks.
"I'm thinking Drew Brees remains a smart, buy-low guy, but since I have him, I don't need to buy him!" Karabell said. "What's wrong with Brees? Can I just blame Devery Henderson for everything? I would have thought getting a home game finally would help, but then I looked up that Brees had 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions at home last year, with 16 TDs and two INTs on the road. So that can't be it. They have to establish the running game. I just gotta wait. I'm going with Brees in Week 3, even if [Tony] Romo's matchup is the reason."
Christopher Harris (0-2, 9th; lost to Matthew Berry 122-63 in Week 2) has what I'd call one of the toughest quandaries of the week; he is the unlucky owner of Larry Johnson, who will be facing the Vikings' sixth-ranked rush defense. It's the matchup that has caused me the most amount of frustration. Johnson owners almost assuredly lack the RB depth to sit him, although those expecting No. 1, or perhaps even high-end No. 2, RB numbers are sure to wind up disappointed. Still, he might be a tempting sit in shallow leagues.
In Harris' case, it doesn't help that Maurice Jones-Drew is off to a slow start and facing a potentially tricky matchup himself, while Tatum Bell stands to lose carries to a healthy Kevin Jones against a stiff Eagles rush D. I feel Harris' pain; as a Johnson owner in another league who also boasted Brandon Jacobs on the same team, it's quite a predicament. Johnson is almost a must-start based simply on his draft position.
"[Johnson] is in for a couple more down weeks, but as you say, there's really little choice but to start him," Harris said. "I don't think he'll reach 100 yards rushing (and San Diego in Week 4 isn't a great matchup, either), but there's little choice but to start him.
"As for the generic case when your three RBs all have tough matchups, if you can't distinguish between how bad the matchups are, I guess just go with the guys who've been better this year and who hold the most potential. ... Provided everyone's relatively healthy, I'd err on the side of playing my studs, especially studs who get goal-line touches."
Experienced owners might know a bit about being beaten by a player they cut, but that's not their only frustration. Ever managed a great performance in a given week, only to lose because you wound up facing a team that had an exceptional performance?
Stephania Bell (0-2, 8th; lost to Ken Daube 168-113 in Week 2) feels your pain. In Week 1, she battled the league's highest-scoring team; Engel tallied 118 points against her. Then, in Week 2, she managed a respectable 113 points, better than five other teams in the league, but again drew the league's highest-scoring team as her opponent.
"I am glad someone noticed that I really am losing unfairly," said Bell, who owns both Brandon Jacobs and Andre Johnson. "It is a conspiracy I think -- torment the new kid on the block and be sure that the injury expert's team is decimated by injury."
How will Bell attempt a rebound in light of such misfortune?
"Ronnie Brown is dead to me," she said. "Or at least he's going on the bench.
"I still have faith in McNabb. [Jeff] Garcia does make a case, but this will be a game-time decision for me. Just not sure yet."
Way to have faith, Stephania! It takes time for an NFL player to recover from reconstructive knee surgery. On the bright side, despite McNabb's problems the first two weeks, he still is looking a little closer to Carson Palmer than Daunte Culpepper in terms of 2006's examples.
On the other end of Bell's Week 2 score, Daube (2-0, 1st; beat Bell 168-113 in Week 2) is riding high with the league's highest-scoring team (285 points in two weeks). Capitalizing on his preseason touting of LaMont Jordan, Daube owns the league's top scorer at QB (Carson Palmer), WR (Steve Smith) and TE (Antonio Gates), the league's Nos. 2 and 8 RBs (Jordan and Jamal Lewis, respectively), and the league's No. 3 defense (Steelers).
"I like my team a lot right now," Daube said. "Carson Palmer might very well have been undervalued on draft day based on how pitiful the Cincinnati defense is. Between him, Antonio Gates and Steve Smith, I have three players that very well might finish first overall at their respective positions."
Despite all that, of all his picks, Daube seems happiest with Jordan.
"Oakland is an underrated offensive team, and Jordan has shown the skills to be a top-10 RB," he said. "I don't care what round he was drafted in, he's for real."
• I'm a big believer in the Ronald Curry matchup against the Browns, who already have allowed 10 passing TDs in two games. Ravitz (1-1, 4th; beat Karabell 115-72 in Week 2), however, actually boasts such WR depth he can't even exploit the matchup.
"As much as I love Marion Barber III, I'm going to sit him down this week (versus the Bears) so I can get three high-upside receivers into the lineup: Chad Johnson, Hines Ward and Joey Galloway," Ravitz said. "I don't like leaving Ronald Curry on the bench against Cleveland, but such is life when you're loaded at wide receiver."
• Pleased with his narrow victory in Week 2, Howie Schwab (1-1, 6th; beat Nando Di Fino 125-120 in Week 2) expressed confidence in Chris Cooley's matchup in Week 3, despite the fact that it might mean rooting against his favorite team. He also is confident enough in Edgerrin James' hot start to roll the dice on him yet again.
"Edge is a tough matchup, and I am debating what to do," Schwab said. "I think I still have to play Edge, despite knowing he will struggle versus the Ravens."
• Di Fino (1-1, 5th; lost to Schwab 125-120 in Week 2) was none too pleased when prodded about Matt Leinart's tricky matchup at the Ravens in Week 3. With concerns about Leinart's chances, Di Fino pondered a pickup of David Garrard before ultimately deciding to stick with his starter.
"I'm not really worried about the Ravens defense right now, to be honest," Di Fino said. "I mean, they gave up 27 points to Cincinnati (14 on two TD passes) against a team with a Heisman winner at QB and two top-notch WRs on the roster. So I see a lot of similarities between the two situations."
In the worst-case scenario, as game-time approaches, Di Fino has another QB trick up his sleeve.
"I did put a waiver claim in for Philip Rivers," he said. "I couldn't believe he was on the wire. ... I think San Diego will get back on track, and all will be well before we know it."
Darn ... guess I'm not getting Rivers! (Di Fino is two spots higher in waiver priority.)
It's another tough matchup for me, as my 2-0 squad (3rd; beat Engel 82-74 in Week 2) goes up against one of the two other 2-0 squads, owned by Berry (2nd; beat Harris 122-63 in Week 2). That's not an easy matchup at all, despite Berry's concerns about Marshawn Lynch's treacherous matchup at the Patriots in Week 3.
"If I had a strong WR option, I'd consider it," Berry said. "But while I like Santonio Holmes, Wes Welker and Antwaan Randle El this week, none is the No. 1 option at WR for their team. And I just can't bench a No. 1 RB for a No. 2 WR, no matter what the matchup."
For my squad, the Broncos defense becomes my one-week start, ahead of the Eagles, who are facing the pass-happy Lions. The Jaguars offense hasn't impressed me though two games, and if memory serves, the team usually performed significantly worse the road in 2006. Beyond that, DeShaun Foster, facing the dreadful Falcons, gets the call ahead of Reggie Brown, who has yet to show me much chemistry with Donovan McNabb.
There's plenty on the line for our Week 3 matchup, though.
"Lose, or you're fired," Berry said.
Darn again ... anyone got the want ads? I play to win!
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
